【讲习班第七讲|内容摘要】气候变化经济学方法论

太阳成集团气候变化经济学师资讲习班第七讲邀请了全球变化经济组教授，英国国家社会科学院院士—关大博，关教授受海外高层次人才项目资助就职于清华大学地球系统科学系，他多年来致力于研究气候变化的成因、影响及应对措施，分析温室气体排放的驱动因素并探讨全球和国家的低碳及低资源消耗的可持续发展路径，其在结合自然科学和社会科学的多领域交叉的研究成果得到了学界的普遍认可。在《自然》及子刊上共发表60余篇开创性学术论文。曾获得《美国科学院院刊》颁发的科扎雷利奖、Philip Leverhulme奖、牛顿资深学者、全球百篇最具影响力贡献奖等荣誉。曾入选了政府间气候变化委员会第五次报告的领衔作者及科睿唯安2018-2020年度全球高被引科学家。

关教授此次讲习的部分内容如下：

如何进行碳排放核算

Ø个人层面

从个人角度来核算碳足迹来看，例如，一头牛吃草，消化过程中会产生甲烷等其他温室气体，折合后1磅的牛肉可能会产生10.4kg的碳排放；成年人吃一个牛肉汉堡其排放量大概在3.6~6.1kg，碳排放量主要来源于人们的生活起居例如衣食住行以及其他方面。从人均碳足迹来说，我国的人均碳足迹相对来说较低，美国等欧美发达国家的人均碳排放相对较高。

Ø国家层面

·Territorial emissions（UNFCCC）

·Production-based (NAMEA)

·Consumption-based

碳泄露（Carbon Leakage）

Ø Strong carbon leakage (IPCC): increase in emissions in non-Annex B countries as a result of mitigation policies in Annex B

·Mitigation-> increased costs -> energy-intensive industry moves to non-Annex B due to lower costs

·Strong carbon leakage reflects the 'territorial and production emission

accounting approach'

Ø Weak carbon leakage (carbon migration): Increased production in non-Annex B to meet increased consumption in Annex B

·Due to pre-existing economic conditions and policies (non-climate)

·International trade grows faster than consumption

·Weak carbon leakage reflects the 'consumption emission accounting approach'

现阶段成果

Ø Strong carbon leakage (IPCC): increase in emissions in non-Annex B countries as a result of mitigation policies in Annex B

·Mitigation-> increased costs -> energy-intensive industry moves to non-Annex B due to lower costs

·Strong carbon leakage reflects the 'territorial and production emission

accounting approach'

Ø Weak carbon leakage (carbon migration): Increased production in non-Annex B to meet increased consumption in Annex B

·Due to pre-existing economic conditions and policies (non-climate)

·International trade grows faster than consumption

·Weak carbon leakage reflects the 'consumption emission accounting approach'

现阶段成果

Ø全球尺度多区域投入产出表

Ø chegnshijie

Ø城市级别多区域投入产出表编制框架

Ø构建“一带一路经济带”社会经济环境数据库